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商社マンの考える「商社とは?」#2(2001年頃考えていたこと)

商社の存在について、2001年頃とあるメーリングリストに書いた内容をエントリ。確か、「総合商社は専門商社化していくのか?」みたいな議論の中で出した意見。微妙に時代の流れを感じさせる部分もあるが、本質的には今も変わっていない気がする、商社自体も、自分の考えも。
先日の「商社=ルーター説」は一旦忘れて読んでください。



あらゆる商売というものは、Black Boxに高い対価を払っています。
たとえば、美味しいリンゴが不味いリンゴよりなぜ高いかというと、勿論需要が供給より高いからなのですが、なぜ需要が高いかと言えば、「美味しいリンゴを作る秘訣」がBlack Boxであるが故にCompetitorが減り、結果として需要が供給を上回ることになるからです。逆に、様々な業者が「美味しいリンゴを作る秘訣」を手に入れれば、市場参入者が増えることで供給が需要を上回り、価格は下落していきます。
また、消費者が「美味しいリンゴを作る秘訣」を手に入れれば、自分でかける手間隙によるコスト負担及び逸失利益が業者に払う対価を上回らない限り、「自分で作った方が安上がり」となり、結果として需要が下がることで価格は下落していきます。

さて、これまで商社は基本的に、「商流へのコミットメント」「事務処理業務」を行い、SupplierやUserから口銭を取得することを生業としてきました(※注1)。戦後(明治維新以降、としても良いですが)急成長を遂げる日本において、厄介な貿易実務や海外の顧客との折衝を肩代わりし、対価を得てきたわけです。言わば、商社にとってはこの「貿易実務」や「顧客との折衝」の部分がBlack Boxでした。
やがて日本企業の貿易Expertiseが蓄積され、商社のBlack Boxの内容が明るみに出ると、自分で手間隙かけることによるコスト負担及び逸失利益の方が商社に払う口銭より割安、と考えた企業は商社の業務を自前で行うようになりました。さらに、20世紀末のIT革命の恩恵により、多くの事務作業は自動化できるようになり、初期投資さえ負担できれば、ゼロに等しいコストで自前で商社業務を行えるようになりました。
こうした流れの中で唱えられ続けてきた(そして唱えられ続けている)のが所謂「商社不要論」です。

それでは、Black Boxを失った商社はどうするべきか?
ひとつには、より複雑かつ難解な(と思われる)仕組みを作り出し、Black Boxを増やすことで収入を得る方法があるでしょう。投資銀行やバイアウトファンド、ベンチャーキャピタルなどのようなスタイルです。
また別の方法としては、これまでの商社機能・情報=Black Boxを敢えて公開することで、その機能優位性・情報優位性を誇示し、その実践プロセスを請け負うことで収入を得る方法が考えられます。
コンサルティングファームや弁護士、会計士などのスタイルがこれに当たります。
かのMcKinseyやBoston Consulting Groupが自らの分析手法・理論を公開しながらも、なおその実践プロセスにおいて収入を得ているのはよく知られているところです。(明るみに出てもなお、彼らのBlack Boxが高値だった、というのもありますが)

翻って、実際に商社はどの方向に進んできたか?
結論から言うと(※注2)、商社は業務を多岐にわたらせることで生き長らえる道を選びました。
具体的には、「労働力の安売り」です。
上述の「投資銀行型」「コンサルティングファーム型」のいずれでもなく、客先のコスト負担・逸失利益より安値でサービスを提供することで「薄利多売」に走ったのです(この意味において、確かに商社マンはブルーカラーです)。そうなると、必然的に営業利益率は非常に低くなり、「人が資産」であり、マンパワーなしでは業務をこなせない企業形態であるにも関わらず、人件費が経営を圧迫するというジレンマに陥りました。各商社にとって、コスト削減が至上命題でありながらも思い切った人員削減に踏み切れなかったのはそうした理由があったからです(基本的に人員削減は即薄利少売に繋がる)。

では、商社は今後どの方向に進もうとしているのか?
上に「商社は薄利多売に走った」と述べましたが、その一方で、商社は「投資銀行型」の道も模索してきました。
石油プロジェクト投資や大型機械設備リース等のプロジェクトファイナンス、為替ディーリングや商品先物取引等の金融商品取引、最近ではプライベート・エクィティ投資や証券化がそれに当たるでしょう。
また、「コンサルティングファーム型」の道も模索しています。
最近特に力を入れているe-Market PlaceやSupply Chain Managementへの取り組みがそれに当たります(注3)。
但し、前者においては自らBlack Boxを作るまでには至らず、後者においてはスキーム全体の中の商社の位置を確固たるものにできていない(まだ結果の出ていない分野でもありますが)のが現実であり、Initiativeを取っているとは言い難い状況です。

いずれの場合にせよ、問題点はそうした商売に未整理な頭のままで取り組んでいることであり、商社の「Contents」が混沌としているがゆえの結果と言えるでしょう。「投資銀行型」にせよ、「コンサルティングファーム型」にせよ、まずは軸足を決め、Contentsを充実させることが重要なのですが、近年商社はこうした混沌状態を逆に「総合力」と称して売り文句にしております。「選択と集中」の観点から言えば、採算性の悪い「薄利多売」部分を切り捨て、高収益の「投資銀行」や「コンサルティングファーム」に特化することが市場受けするのでしょうが、実は「薄利多売」部分から生み出されるコネクションが「投資銀行」「コンサルティングファーム」部分に還元されるところが多く(また逆も然り)、そう簡単には「総合」の看板を下ろせないという事情もあります。
そうした事情を逆手にとって、「総合力」を標榜してもいるのです。

私の文章が混沌としてきましたが、これからも総合商社は「総合」であり続け、但し「薄利多売」しながら「投資銀行」や「コンサルティングファーム」により重きを置くようになるでしょう。
そうした「古きコネクション」と「新しき知恵」の組み合わせが商社の付加価値なのだろうと考えます。ただ難しいのは、「薄利多売」しながらどこまで「投資銀行」「コンサルティングファーム」を営めるか、ということです。実際に「総合」であり続ける為には「薄利多売」部分ではITの駆使・アウトソーシングなどで業務効率化を図る必要があり、「投資銀行」部分では新たなExpertiseを蓄積する必要があり、「コンサルティングファーム」部分ではKnow-Howを活かして問題解決を図る必要があります。また、全社的見地からは、それらのBalance加減を考え、人員を配置し、従業員のMotivationを高め、情報管理システムを整える必要があります。
これから商社においては、どの分野においても言われた通りに単純作業をしているだけで許してもらえるわけがなく、フルに頭脳を回転させ、自ら行動することが求められます。恐らくは、「考えない人間」はどんどんはじかれていくことでしょう。(各社ともにベタベタの日本企業ゆえ、人員削減は最後まで後回しにされると思いますが)
個人的には、非常にChallengingかつExcitingな環境だと思っています。

以上、商社の抱える問題点やその解決策を講じないままにツラツラと書いてみました。
誤解を恐れずに言えば、商社には企業理念というものはなく、ただ「Greed」という本質があるだけです。
企業理念がないがゆえに市場に対して進むべき明確な方向を指し示すことができず、あらゆる事業に手を出さざるを得ない。いろいろ書きましたが、つまるところそれだけの話かもしれません。



注1:この文章の前に、FRI主催者の元商社マン・河合さんという方の「商社論」という名文があり、それが下敷きになっています。前は河合さんのWeb Siteで公開されていたのですが、今は見当たらないのでエッセンスだけを抜粋します(イマイチうまくない纏めですが)。
  • 円安でモノを作れば売れた時代、商社の仕事は「商流へのコミット」と「事務処理業務」だった(要は無理やり商流に入り込んで事務作業を請け負っていた)。
  • やがてそれらに付加価値がないことに気づく(商社斜陽論の頃)と、「高付加価値」なものを求めて商社業務は多様化した。
  • 結果として、商社マンは販売・与信管理・回収の全てをこなす「個人商店」と化した。しかしそれはあくまでOperational Effectivenessを高めるだけであり、商社マンはWhite Collarの皮をかぶったBlue Collarとなった。
  • 表向きWhite Collarの商社マンを養うには莫大なコストがかかる為、商社の利益率は異常に低くなった。「人の在庫」という不良資産を抱えた結果、商社は収益性の高い投資事業などに容易に傾倒していった。
  • 結果として、商社は高コストである「人の在庫」に苦しめられながら資産を切り売りしてやりくりしている。このシステムはやがて崩壊する。
  • 「本業に帰れ」などと商社業界で言われているが、上記の通り商社に本業などはない。つまりこれは、不採算事業から撤退し、スリム化した上でより専門化した業界へシフトすべし、ということである。
  • 一方、ITとネットワークの力により、専門集団がバーチャルコーポレーション化しつつある。こうした流れの中で総合商社は解体されるのだろうか。
  • 商社はついに日本式雇用を諦め、「人の在庫」を償却し始めている。商社を取り巻く環境は非常に厳しい。
注2:注1の通り、商社が「スーパー事務処理集団」になったということ。
注3:こういう試みは悉く失敗したが、多くの場合それは「既存のシステム」の延命の為にITを利用しようとしたから。商社自体が利権団体のひとつだからしょうがないだろう。まあ、そもそも公開するほどのBlack Boxがやっぱりなかった、ってのが根源にあるんだろな。


よろしければ、この記事のご感想をお願い致します。
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めちゃくちゃ難しかったんです。

ところで、商社の投資とはなんなんでしょうか。よく「〜商事、700億円投資」とかニュースにでますが。

プロジェクトファイナンスも銀行は貸す側、商社は借りる側といいますが、商社は借りてどうするのか教えていただけますか。

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